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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still