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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."